Sounding Off: Consolidation in rentals will be the story of 2021

Each Friday, PhocusWire dissects and debates an industry trend or new development covered by PhocusWire that week.

An obvious response to Steve Milo's reaction to the Vacasa/TurnKey deal from last week is that rental platforms and the software providers that surround it should be on high alert for consolidation in the sector.

This is an inevitable consequence of a number of factors in play right now.

Firstly, the vacation rental sector is maturing quickly. It's no longer the newbie (was it ever?) in the online travel space and consolidation is always a signal of a market that has found its feet.

The market has struck out ahead of hotels in the recovery process, according owners and intermediaries of both rental and multi-accommodation supply.

And, finally, the influx of capital from hungry investors can also push well-funded brands to "roll up" the smaller players that are lacking the means to grow or compete.

So here we are, almost a perfect storm of elements coming together amid a period of huge uncertainty how the year will unravel.

What seems to be another important factor in this scenario is how the biggest platforms in the market, such as Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com, might react.

They may well be those that instigate a lot of the consolidation that takes place - but, some might argue, they do not need to absorb other suppliers of content nor do they require any of the tech vendors in the market.

One likely outcome, therefore, is that the consolidation happens entirely in the middle tier of the market.

The powerhouses will simply watch on, perhaps increase their marketing spend to counter any initial increase in consumer-facing activity from those figuring out their position underneath them, then carry on as usual, undeterred.