A fresh report from Bloomberg that Travelport is planning a $3.2 billion public offering in the UK set off speculation that the company could divest its 48% stake in Orbitz Worldwide in the process and deliver OWW to Expedia Inc.
In a note to investors Dec. 18, Jake Fuller, an analyst at Soleil Securities, doesn't come down on one side or another about whether Expedia would scoop up Orbitz in tandem with a reported February 2010 Travelport IPO, but he says a potential "combo points to potential accretion in the 5%+ range" for Expedia.
Fuller, who also analyzes this sort of stuff for PhoCusWright, cautions that investors likely would react negatively to such a move by Expedia because the OTA, with Orbitz in hand, would increase its risk in further exposing itself "to the low margin domestic [airline] ticket business."
After all, OWW's efforts to build a global hotel business are in the early stages.
In fact, Fuller notes that all of the companies -- Travelport, Amadeus and Sabre --which own global distribution systems have either retained bankers [Amadeus and Travelport] or publicly stated [Sabre] their consideration of an IPO early in 2010.
"It is our view that the OTA assets would likely be divested in the process in a bid to create GDS pure play and reduce internal conflicts of interest," Fuller says.
Fuller sees Expedia being a more likely buyer than Priceline if OWW or Travelocity, which is owned by Sabre, were put up for sale.
"While Expedia has indicated that it sees no consolidation push, it has historically been a buyer and talk of it being in the mix has been persistent," Fuller says.
I spoke with Expedia Inc. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi a couple of weeks ago, and he sought to dampen speculation about OTA consolidation, arguing that such combinations are unlikely in a period where the global markets are growing.
Still, there are many pundits with contrarian views about OTA consolidation, contending it is overdue.
Meanwhile, I wonder about the notion that Amadeus, Sabre and Travelport [with Apollo, Galileo and Worldspan in the Travelport fold] would all welcome the GDS pure-play notion.
The GDSs are cash cows, but Travelocity, for example, probably is among Sabre's fastest growing businesses. Would Sabre really want to throw away that kind of international growth?
I doubt it.
Update: It was pointed out to me that Travelocity's transactions actually declined about 17% in the second quarter. I'm unsure how that compares with the growths or declines of Sabre's GDS or airlines solutions businesses.
But, if Sabre were to divest itself of Travelocity, where would Sabre's growth come from?
There are opportunities for further growth in the GDS business in the developing world over the long-term, but do investors think long-term these days?